Darkfost responds to view that a 20% U.S. stock pullback would trigger BTC crash to $10,000: prediction too extreme, lacking historical basis

October 18 — In response to a recent community view that a 20% U.S. stock market pullback would trigger Bitcoin to crash to $10,000, crypto analyst Darkfost published an analysis pointing out that if Bitcoin fell to $10,000, it would represent a drop of roughly 87% from its current price and a drawdown of about 92% from its all-time high. Historically, Bitcoin has only experienced a maximum drawdown exceeding 92% in 2011; the maximum drawdowns in 2015, 2019, 2022 and 2026 were 82.5%, 82.6%, 74.4% and 54.2%, respectively.

Darkfost further noted that when the S&P 500 index pulled back about 19.53%, Bitcoin once fell roughly 80% in 2018, but in April 2025, when the S&P 500 likewise pulled back more than 19%, Bitcoin fell only about 22%. Therefore, directly linking a 20% U.S. stock market pullback to Bitcoin falling to $10,000 lacks sufficient historical data support.