The valuation of RoboCop, known as the "First Stock of Humanoid Robots"

Original Title: "How Much is the 'First Stock of Humanoid Robot' Ubtech Worth?"
Original Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily

On August 10, Ubtech, known as the "first stock of humanoid robot" in China, officially opened its subscription channel. On August 11, the online and offline subscription results of Ubtech were released. The online subscription rate was only 0.01809759%, which is relatively low among the 93 newly listed stocks this year. The offline investor allocation ratio was 0.03341824%, ranking sixth among the 46 newly listed stocks with offline subscriptions this year.

For comparison, the highest online subscription rate for a new stock this year was the "leading domestic storage manufacturer" Longsys Technology, which was 0.47141739% when it listed in July. Ubtech's online subscription rate was 3.8% of Longsys Technology, and the offline subscription rate was 19% of Longsys Technology.

With such a rare subscription probability, many people are looking forward to the profit potential of Ubtech after its opening. Calculated based on a market capitalization of 200 billion yuan at the opening, an investment of about 75,400 yuan for 500 shares is estimated to have a floating profit of about 170,000 yuan. If calculated based on the average first-day gain of 466.61% for new STAR Market stocks this year, the floating profit from one allocation could reach 350,000 yuan.

After listing, can Ubtech's market value soar from 61 billion yuan to 200 billion yuan? Can Ubtech founder Wang Xingxing ascend to the throne of the "STAR Market's richest person"? What are the opening trading opportunities? How will Ubtech's subsequent market trends be? We will comprehensively discuss the above questions based on the existing information.

Subscription Results Released: Oversubscription Ratio Exceeds 8288 Times, Only 19,414 Allocation Numbers

On the evening of August 11, Ubtech released the IPO offline preliminary allocation results and online subscription results announcement. In the end, there were approximately 19,414 allocation numbers for retail investors, and 31...

Excluding the online and offline allotment shares, Yushu Technology's strategic placement this time also boasts a "luxurious lineup."

IPO Strategic Placement List: Encompassing SOEs, State-owned Funds, Tech Giants, AI Companies, and Multiple Brokerages

In the "strategic placement investors" list deeply integrated with Yushu Technology, national social security fund-related organizations, AI company DeepSeek, China National Petroleum Corporation, State Grid Corporation of China, enterprises under China Telecom, Tencent's subsidiaries, Citic Securities, and other institutions are prominently featured.

According to Wang Xingxing himself, DeepSeek will provide Yushu Technology with market-competitive commercial cooperation plans, including but not limited to providing technical support in model architecture solutions, smart computing cluster construction, data center operation (if any) based on demand and business development status; the latter belongs to large-scale enterprises that have strategic cooperation relations or long-term cooperation vision with the company in operational business and can engage in strategic cooperation with the company, possessing significant resources in the same industry or upstream and downstream of the industrial chain as the company to enhance the company's market competitiveness. Other strategic placement investment institutions are also similar in roles, with Citic Securities deepening its involvement in the form of "equity investment + IPO co-investment," and five other brokerage peers indirectly participating in investments through LP status. In terms of external support, Yushu Technology has received optimism from multiple institutions such as SOEs, state-owned funds, tech giants, AI companies, and brokerages.

In addition, Yushu Technology employees have also initiated two rounds of asset management plans to participate in the strategic placement: Asset Management Plan 1 raised $218.5 million; Asset Management Plan 2 raised $53.1 million. Among them, the participants in Asset Management Plan 1 include CFO Wang Feng and 161 others, while the participants in Asset Management Plan 2 include Chairman Wang Xingxing and 10 others, with Wang Xingxing subscribing for $15 million. It is evident that Yushu employees are using real money to bet on the company's long-term development.

IPO Data Overview: "Fastest Past Approval Target of the Year," Total Fundraising Amount of $6.1 billion, Initial Circulation of Approximately 7.36%

Yushu's issue price is $15.08 per share, issuing 40.4464 million shares, accounting for 10% of the post-issue total share capital, raising approximately $6.099 billion, oversubscribed by 45.15% compared to the original plan of $4.202 billion. From acceptance on March 20 to approval in just 73 days, and IPO subscription on August 10 in less than 5 months, setting the fastest record of the year.

Regarding Unitree Technology's offline issuance stock lock-up restriction, according to Unitree Technology's announcement yesterday, the quantity of offline issuance after strategic placement recall is 25,886.148 million shares, accounting for approximately 80.00% of the issuance quantity after deducting the final strategic placement quantity. 90% of the shares have no lock-up period and can be freely traded from the day the stock is listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange; 10% of the shares have a lock-up period of 6 months, which starts from the day the stock is listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Furthermore, according to previous data, based on a post-issue total share capital of approximately 404 million shares, the tradable shares on the first day of listing are approximately 29.77 million shares, accounting for about 7.36% of the total share capital, with over 90% of the shares in a locked-up state.

Pre-market Pricing: Indicative price per share around $87.8, Market Cap $35.47 billion

data from trade.xyz shows that Unitree Technology's IPO pre-market perpetual contract price is around $87.8. Based on a total share capital of 404 million shares, the market cap is approximately $35.47 billion, equivalent to about ¥2,390 billion.

Market Prediction: Probability of Unitree Technology's closing market cap exceeding ¥200 billion currently around 75%

The prediction market platform has also made predictions about Unitree Technology's closing market cap. Data from the predict.fun platform shows:

· Probability of Unitree Technology's closing market cap exceeding ¥200 billion is currently around 75%;

· Probability of Unitree Technology's closing market cap exceeding ¥250 billion is currently around 43%;

· Probability of Unitree Technology's closing market cap exceeding ¥300 billion is currently around 18%.

Individual One-sign Profit Range: Ranging from ¥170,000 to ¥350,000, Wang Xingxing may become the "Science and Technology Innovation Board's Richest"

It is estimated that if we benchmark the average first-day gain of A-share IPOs since 2026, which is as high as 276.04%, the profit per share of Unitree Technology could exceed ¥200,000. If we benchmark the average first-day gain of Science and Technology Innovation Board IPOs this year, which is 466.61%, the profit per individual share could reach ¥351,800.

If Unitree Technology opens with a market cap of ¥200 billion, corresponding to a stock price of around ¥500 per share, the market value of one lot of 500 shares will soar to ¥250,000, with an unrealized profit of approximately ¥170,000.

Yushu Technology founder Wang Xingxing directly and indirectly holds a stake of approximately 30% in the company after its IPO. If Yushu Technology's market value rises to over 200 billion, his stake will be worth 60 billion, surpassing Mukexi Technology's Chen Weiliang directly, and becoming the richest entrepreneur on China's Sci-Tech Innovation Board. The outlook seems promising.

IPO Fundraising Use Plan: 85% of Funds Allocated to R&D, Focusing on the Robot Industry Chain

Regarding the IPO fundraising direction, 85% of Yushu Technology's funds will be invested in various R&D projects, with four main areas receiving allocations: Intelligent Robot Model R&D 2.022 billion, Robot Body R&D 1.11 billion, New Smart Robot Product Development 0.445 billion, and Intelligent Robot Manufacturing Base Construction 0.624 billion.

Yushu Technology estimates that the company's revenue in the first half of 2026 will be between 1.052 billion and 1.128 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.62% to 45.41%; the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company is expected to be 0.258 billion to 0.306 billion; the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be 0.236 billion to 0.283 billion. However, Yushu Technology's current sky-high PE ratio of 219 times still sparks controversy, and there is significant disagreement in the market regarding the company's valuation.

Valuation Dispute: Will it be 100 billion, 200 billion, or even 400 billion?

As of now, the expected market value of Yushu Technology has a wide range of predictions from both institutions and individual investors.

Looking at the revenue data from the past three years, from 2023 to 2025, Yushu Technology's revenue has climbed from 0.159 billion to 1.699 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 226.78%; non-GAAP net profit has turned from a loss of 18.0191 million to a profit of 0.591 billion, and the main gross margin has increased from 44.22% to 60.13%, with the humanoid robot's gross margin reaching as high as 63.18%. In 2025, the operating net cash flow was 0.67 billion, the monetary funds in the account were 1.419 billion, and there was almost no interest-bearing debt. Despite the first quarter of 2026 seeing a revenue of 0.423 billion, with year-on-year growth dropping from 332.64% in 2025 to 68.49%, and non-GAAP net profit decreasing to 40.2536 million, a 52.55% decline; Wang Xingxing attributes this to "a significant increase in revenue base, gradual easing of industry heat, and increasingly fierce market competition." Lavish marketing expenses during the Spring Festival are also a contributing factor.

Market Cap Estimate Range: From $109 billion to over $400 billion

Jianyin International, based on Yushu Technology's rarity as the "first stock of humanoid robots," its leading global market share, and high growth performance expectations, has provided a market cap forecast of $109 billion, corresponding to a 2026 target P/S ratio of 32x. Some market institutions have given an optimistic estimate of $200 billion to $300 billion based on the future industry space.

CITIC Securities has a 6 to 12-month bullish view on Yushu Technology reaching a market cap of around 20x sales, requiring Yushu to increase revenue to $11.5 billion, a nearly 7x increase from the 2025 revenue of $1.7 billion.

"White Hair Stock God" Serenity stated that Yushu Technology's IPO received over 8000 times oversubscription from retail investors, reflecting the market's "extremely high" demand for a pure humanoid robot company. Serenity believes that Yushu Technology's pre-IPO perpetual contract market valuation has already shown high expectations. If the post-listing market cap reaches over $30 billion, it may further increase market attention to the leading humanoid robot company in the United States in the next one or two weeks.

Yushu Technology's early investor and Dunhong Asset partner Yu Wenchao has given the boldest estimate: "A post-listing market cap exceeding $200 billion is very reasonable, and I think it's possible to exceed $400 billion in the short term. Compared to the valuations of similar overseas companies, this is not an exaggeration."

In response to a question raised during the IPO roadshow about whether the stock price will break, Yushu Technology's founder Wang Xingxing replied, "Please pay attention to the company's stock price trend after listing." His words were quite confident, leaving a sense of eager anticipation among everyone.

Wang Xingxing Responds: Humanoid Robot Shipment Volume Ranks First Globally, "Brain" Shortfall Already Addressed

Regarding the controversy at the roadshow about the "219x non-GAAP P/E ratio far exceeding the industry average of 38.56x," Wang Xingxing stated that based on the 2025 non-GAAP net profit, the IPO price ($150.5) corresponds to a P/E ratio of 92.92x; the company is in a broad market space in the embodied intelligence industry, and the pricing is in line with the operating conditions and industry development.

By 2025, Yushu's humanoid robot shipment volume will exceed 5500 units, excluding wheeled dual-arm robots, and Wang Xingxing claims that the shipment volume ranks first globally.

Facing the current questioning of "brain" limitations, Wang Xing stated that UTree has laid out two routes: WMA (World Model Architecture) and VLA (Vision-Language-Action model). He emphasized that the overall R&D capabilities and technological maturity rank among the top in the world.

Furthermore, when an investor raised a sharp question of "Is UTree Technology's robot a remote-controlled toy," Wang Xing responded by comparing the humanoid robot industry to the smart driving technology in the automotive industry. He pointed out: "The remote control is the highest-priority safety redundancy, just like a smart driving car equipped with a steering wheel and brake pedal. In extremely complex terrains, communication anomalies, or logical errors, the operator can use it for emergency shutdown and forced evasion."

Currently, based on the IPO schedule, the market generally predicts that UTree Technology may be listed on the A-share market as early as next week.

Looking at UTree Technology's revenue data over the past three years, the market currently holds high expectations for a market cap surge of ¥200 billion; based on pre-market contract pricing data on Hyperliquid (trade.xyz), there is a higher probability of a surge to ¥250 billion market cap before falling back to ¥190-210 billion.

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