Interview with Benson Sun: The BTC Main Uptrend Has Not Yet Triggered, Focus on Established Altcoin Narratives: ZEC, HYPE, UNI, NEAR

This cycle heralding a long bull run: BTC/Gold correlation hits historical extremes, BTC's main surge phase has not yet triggered, focus on established main themes for altcoins: ZEC, HYPE, UNI, NEAR

Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 2:00 PM. After months of silence, Benson returns to 168X. For the past few months, he dedicated most of his time to family, with his trading primarily focused on lending and arbitrage. Only recently, as the market showed signs of an "early bull," did he start increasing directional trades again.

In this episode of 168X, we welcome back Benson, Founder of CoinKarma (@coinkarma_) (@BensonTWN). This marks his fourth Crypto bull market, but his perspective this time is completely different: Bitcoin is gradually shifting from a "high-volatility tech stock beta" to a true Digital Gold; this bull run may not be a vertical explosion, but rather smaller cycles nested within a longer overarching cycle. The ideal scenario for BTC points to around $200,000, but the true main surge phase hasn't arrived yet; it's no longer advisable to hunt for "hidden Alpha" across altcoins, but rather to directly buy the main themes already confirmed by price action.

I. Bitcoin is Being Gold-ified: BTC/Gold Correlation Hits Historical Extremes

Mr. Z: This is your fourth Crypto bull market. If we're in the early stages now, what is your core thesis for this cycle?

Benson: I wrote an article in early September, whose core point is that this might be the beginning of Bitcoin's goldification. In past cycles, transitioning from late bear markets to early bull markets always follows a fascinating pattern: the correlation coefficient between BTC and gold rapidly rises from low levels.

Benson: Historically, Bitcoin isn't as correlated with gold as people assume, with a median 60-day rolling correlation of only about 0.2 to 0.3. Most of the time, Bitcoin actually resembles a high-volatility version of Nasdaq, moving with tech stocks and USD liquidity. But whenever we hit the latter half of a bear market and the start of a bull market, its gold attributes suddenly strengthen.

Benson: What's most notable about this cycle is the magnitude. The 60-day rolling correlation between BTC and gold reached around 0.64 and 0.65. Since Bitcoin's inception, there have only been 21 days where the 60-day correlation exceeded 0.6, with 17 of those occurring in the last six weeks. Every previous early bull phase saw goldification, but this one lasts the longest and reaches the highest absolute values.

II. BTC is No Longer Just an Enhanced Nasdaq: It's Shifting Between Gold and Equities

Mr. Z: So you mean BTC isn't becoming fully gold overnight, but rather its traditionally equity-leaning attributes are clearly shifting toward safe-haven assets?

Benson: Exactly. Previously, during risk-off periods, Bitcoin generally fell harder than tech stocks because many bought it specifically as a high-volatility beta. However, another group in the market treats it as a long-term store of value, and these two groups trade in fundamentally different ways.

Benson: When prices drop from highs, the liquidity traders flee first. Once floating supply slowly settles, those who truly view BTC as a store of value step in. That's why every late bear market sees Bitcoin suddenly resemble gold more and more.

Benson: I often open charts for Nasdaq, BTC, and gold simultaneously now. BTC still retains equity attributes, but it no longer moves almost entirely in lockstep with Nasdaq. It now sits between gold and Nasdaq, and is increasingly leaning toward gold.

Benson: More interestingly, when gold drops recently, BTC also drops but proves relatively resilient; when gold rises, BTC often outperforms. This price action wasn't nearly this pronounced in the past.

III. $82k-$83k is Key Support: Once the Truck Starts Moving, It Doesn't U-Turn Easily

Mr. Z: Given that BTC has already rallied ~30% from the low 60ks, many missed the boat. At current levels of $82k-$83k, should we still buy, or wait for $75k?

Benson: I believe the market truly confirms the bull trend once BTC breaks above the $82k-$82.5k zone. Breaking the weekly chart structure triggers larger-cycle CTA funds to enter.

Benson: Imagine BTC as a massive truck. Now that it's starting to move and accelerate, expecting it to slam the brakes and immediately U-turn back into typical bear market territory would be highly difficult unless a major macro event occurs.

Benson: Technically, after breaking through a key resistance level, price typically pulls back to retest it, turning former resistance into support. So the support level I'm watching right now is roughly $82k to $83k.

Benson: One annoying aspect of Crypto is that it might only spend 10% of its time in the true main surge phase, while the other 90% is choppy, making you question everything. If you already believe we're in the early bull phase, then pullbacks are meant to be bought into, not reasons to doubt whether the bull market has returned.

IV. Valuing BTC: Gold Suggests $150k-$250k

Mr. Z: Previous guests projected $150k-$180k for BTC this cycle. What's your own target?

Benson: If my core thesis is BTC goldification, then I believe the most logical coordinate system isn't just drawing candlestick charts, but analyzing the BTC/Gold ratio.

Benson: Currently, 1 BTC buys about 18 to 20 ounces of gold. This ratio historically breaks through a new tier at the peaks of past bull markets. The previous cycle's clear peak hovered around 40.

Benson: If this cycle's narrative around resisting fiat debasement is truly stronger, and we assume the BTC/Gold ratio reaches 45-50 while gold sits near $5,000, then BTC would land in the $200k-$250k range.

Benson: If it can't break past the previous cycle's tier—say it caps out at 35-40—then it might be $150k-$180k. So I treat $150k-$180k as a base case scenario, and $200k-$250k as a bullish ideal.

V. ETFs Changed the Game: Institutions Can Finally Trade BTC as a Financial Asset

Mr. Z: Why do you think this cycle's BTC goldification will be more pronounced than before?

Benson: A major reason is the ETF. Previously, it was extremely cumbersome for pension funds or regulated institutions to take direct spot BTC exposure. They could only buy proxies like Coinbase or MicroStrategy, with no direct way to access BTC.

Benson: Institutions face strict requirements for liquidity, risk management, custody, and compliance. We retail traders can dump BTC onto an exchange to sell for USD, but pension funds cannot manage assets that way.

Benson: Securitizing BTC through ETFs completely changes the landscape. Institutions can directly buy IBIT or other BTC ETFs, and build lending facilities, financing, and asset allocation around these securitized products.

Benson: There used to be a group wanting to buy BTC as gold, but they couldn't get in. With ETFs, these funds finally have an entry point compliant with traditional finance, smoothing the path for Digital Gold significantly.

VI. Not a Vertical Explosion: Bitcoin Bull Markets Are Evolving From Single Cycles To Long Cycles

Mr. Z: So will this cycle play out less like the rapid multi-month explosions of the past, with less explosive power but greater longevity?

Benson: I think this shift has actually been happening for years. The 2017 bull run was simple: price ran from January to December and ended straight away, essentially a vertical rocket.

Benson: 2020 to 2021 played out differently, already showing two distinct tops. The following cycle split into multiple phases: a rally, followed by a six-month consolidation, then another push higher, punctuated by events like tariffs and liquidity shifts before making new highs.

Benson: Thus, the structural makeup of BTC bull markets has slowly evolved from "one massive trend" to a large overarching cycle containing many nested smaller cycles. I believe this characteristic will be even more pronounced this cycle.

Benson: So the $150k, $180k, $200k, or even $250k targets I mentioned aren't necessarily the absolute final endpoints of this entire long cycle. No one knows how long this evolution regarding Bitcoin goldification and US Treasury credit repricing will ultimately take.

Benson: You can even flip it around: everyone originally thought the four-year cycle would end at some point, and assumed bear markets must drop 70-80%, yet this one only fell over 50% before recovering. What if we've actually remained in the same larger macro cycle all along, merely experiencing several minor bull-bear fluctuations in between?

VII. Stop Fantasizing You're a Genius: The Simplest Bull Strategy Is Buying Established Main Themes

Mr. Z: What about altcoins? Is it still necessary to spend countless hours researching undiscovered coins this cycle?

Benson: I'm on my fourth cycle now, and every cycle features claims that certain altcoins will "change the world." Ultimately, however, the vast majority turn out to be vaporware.

My strategy this round is incredibly simple. During the early bull phase, if a narrative is already confirmed by price action, or a coin genuinely has capital backing it and demonstrating independent strength, I buy it directly.

Benson: I'd rather operate with a baseline IQ of 100. Since I subjectively believe we're in the early bull phase, I'll just follow the themes the market has already validated, instead of expending immense effort fantasizing that I can uncover something invisible to others ahead of schedule.

Benson: Everyone has access to AI and research capabilities now. If something is truly glaringly obvious with stellar fundamentals but the price shows absolutely zero reaction, ask yourself one thing first: why am I the only one in the entire market who sees it? Could it be that I'm the one misreading it?

You can never remain the smartest person in the room. So for most people, rather than constantly switching rides, it's better to identify established themes, add positions on dips, and sit tight while the waves carry you forward.

VIII. 100x Gets Harder: If Capital Is Small, The Problem Might Be Your Principal, Not The Market

Mr. Z: But younger traders with smaller accounts might find this unexciting. Coins like ZEC, UNI, and HYPE are already massive, making another 2x or 3x hard. So where do you look for extreme multipliers?

Benson: We must acknowledge that the opportunity structure in Crypto today is completely different from 2021. Back then, you could genuinely buy SOL for a few dollars on exchanges and hold until it hit dozens or hundreds of dollars. Finding opportunities for average retail traders to easily catch 20x, 50x, or even 100x gains on exchanges is exceedingly rare now.

Benson: If your principal is truly tiny and you need a 100x or 1000x return to hit your life goals, the problem is rarely the market—it's usually your starting capital.

Benson: If you're genuinely chasing returns of that magnitude, I believe the highest-probability opportunities lie on-chain, not among mature exchange-listed altcoins. But that demands a completely different approach: you must be exceptional at swing trading and risk management, and accept a vastly higher failure rate.

Benson: Large principal with small position sizes yields substantial absolute gains; small principal chasing huge multipliers yields minimal absolute gains. As markets mature, this is an unavoidable reality.

IX. On-Chain vs. Exchange: Know Your Home Field First, Not All Alpha Is Worth Chasing

Mr. Z: Then why haven't you invested too much on-chain? Platforms like Robinhood and Solana still constantly present high-multiplier opportunities.

Benson: Because you need to know your home field. On-chain trading requires intense focus; you might sit and wait for quite a while for those few genuine opportunities, navigating through countless failed projects along the way.

Benson: At least among those on-chain traders I know who've made significant returns, profits are heavily concentrated in very few deals. Think of it like a card dealer: out of 10,000 hands, maybe only 200 or 300 are truly winning ones.

Benson: Meanwhile, trading secondary exchange markets gives me likely 2,000 to 3,000 actionable hands out of those 10,000. Considering mental energy, time commitment, and income curve stability, I strongly prefer secondary exchange trading.

Benson: That doesn't mean on-chain is bad. If you're young, have time, possess endless stamina, and are willing to wait for that rare gem, go for it. But I have a family and kids now, so I won't treat on-chain as my primary battlefield anymore.

Benson: You shouldn't chase every piece of alpha. The most important thing is recognizing which opportunities best align with your capital size, available time, and circle of competence.

X. Stick To 4 Altcoin Themes: ZEC, HYPE, UNI, NEAR

Mr. Z: So the only altcoins you're actively holding lately are basically just those?

Benson: Right. My current core holdings revolve around ZEC, HYPE, UNI, and NEAR. These four constitute my main themes.

Benson: I do rotate positions occasionally. For instance, if HYPE hits a psychological barrier like $100 and I see strong selling pressure above it, I might temporarily take profits and rotate into SOL or other stronger performers. But that's purely tactical, not indicative of a long-term theme shift.

Benson: Because I'm fairly experienced in this market, I can sometimes execute short-term rotation based on price action. But if you're not watching daily and lack multiple-cycle experience, I actually think it's unnecessary.

Benson: The most common mistake retail makes isn't picking the wrong theme, but continuously trying to be clever by switching assets within the same theme. Simply holding tends to yield better results.

XI. One Indicator Set For The Entire Market: Buy Low, Sell High, Don't Reinvent Strategies For Every Coin

Mr. Z: Since you mainly track price now, how exactly do you decide when to add positions and when to trim them?

Benson: CoinKarma features a 0-to-100 indicator called the Market Pulse Index specifically designed to gauge overall market positioning. Values closer to 0 indicate relative bottoms; higher values signal increasing heat.

Benson: From May to August this year, it spent extended periods in the teens or twenties—that's prime territory for me to buy aggressively. When BTC pulled back to around $75k on September 16th, I executed a straightforward quantitative rule: whenever the index dipped below 25, I dollar-cost averaged $10k hourly into those main themes I just mentioned.

Benson: I don't invent separate strategies for ZEC, another for HYPE, another for UNI. Most of the time, these altcoins maintain exceptionally high correlation with the broader BTC market.

Benson: So my method is simple: treat the aggregate market index as a water level. Buy below a certain threshold, sell above a certain threshold, and ride the larger swings.

Benson: I believe the more mature your trading system becomes, the simpler it should inherently be. You're not proving daily superior intellect over the market; you're following a framework and executing repeatedly.

XII. Why I Swapped All ETH For UNI: Tokenized US Stocks May Be This Cycle's Major Theme

Mr. Z: You heavily held BTC, ETH, and SOL last cycle, but it seems you've now converted all your ETH position into UNI this cycle?

Benson: Correct. I rotated my entire ETH allocation into Uniswap this cycle. Because I view tokenized US equities entering the space as one of the dominant altcoin narratives this round.

Benson: If tokenized stocks truly integrate into DeFi, DEXs and AMMs become critical infrastructure. Uniswap already boasts the largest decentralized trading network effect, so rather than holding ETH, I prefer capturing the direct beta exposure within this specific trajectory.

Benson: Another key shift is regulation. Many historical Crypto narratives were essentially regulatory arbitrage—products survived simply because oversight hadn't caught up. But once regulators formally incorporate AMMs, liquidity pools, and tokenized securities into actionable frameworks, the entire paradigm shifts dramatically.

Benson: It transitions from "I can do this because no one is regulating it" to "The rules clearly define how to do this, finally allowing traditional capital to enter." These represent two entirely different markets.

Note: The SEC officially issued a conditional, temporary Innovation Exemption on September 17, 2026, permitting qualified Tokenized Securities Venues to trade select Tokenized NMS Stocks via permissioned AMMs and Liquidity Pools under specific regulatory frameworks.

XIII. Old Indicators Miss Tops: Watch Closely Whether Institutional Liquidity Keeps Pace

Mr. Z: CoinKarma recently launched the Institutional Liquidity Index. Why develop this tool?

Benson: Because traditional top-calling indicators are becoming progressively less reliable.

Benson: Identifying tops in 2017 was easy. Retail was extremely euphoric, funding rates exploded, on-chain metrics overheated, and anyone could see the market had lost its mind. Yet at subsequent peaks like $69k and $126k, the market lacked that widespread frenzy.

Benson: The reason? Marginal buyers have changed. Previously, retail bought frantically at highs while whales started distributing. Today, when BTC trades at elevated levels, what truly dictates further upside is whether institutional inflows persist.

Benson: Therefore, our Institutional Liquidity Index tracks three primary variables: first, broad USD liquidity including fiscal sector data; second, MicroStrategy's mNAV; third, the trailing 30-day net flows into BTC ETFs.

Benson: When BTC price makes new highs but institutional liquidity fails to keep pace, we flag a divergence. Light divergences render yellow; severe divergences render red.

Benson: Backtesting past instances shows red divergences accurately pinpointed the prior cycle's ~$123k peak and the cycle before's ~$67k local top. Yellow divergences also predominantly align with significant local tops.

Benson: Future bull tops may no longer resemble "mass hysteria," but rather look like "price continues climbing, but underlying capital has stalled." This structural shift is critically important.

XIV. CoinKarma Aims For A Crypto Trading OS: Moving From Data Viewing Straight To Automation

Mr. Z: So what does CoinKarma actually aim to build next? Still just a data dashboard?

Benson: No, we're building the Operating System for Cryptocurrency Trading.

Benson: Nearly all current data products stop at "showing you the data." Once you spot an indicator, you still have to manually connect data APIs, link exchange APIs, run backtests, code strategies, and deploy them—an incredibly lengthy process.

Benson: Our direction allows you to directly utilize CoinKarma's data, write conditions using natural-language-like expressions—for example, "enter if the metric exceeds 3, exit if it drops below 1"—and feed them straight into the backtesting engine.

Benson: If you find the strategy makes sense, we can directly host it for you. Deposit your capital, let it auto-execute per the rules, and adjust parameters anytime afterward.

Benson: We currently run live deployments for over 700 bots serving roughly 1,000 users, with combined AUM hovering around $14 million. Each bot operates like an isolated position, completely segregated from users' other exchange assets.

Mr. Z: That sounds significantly easier to implement than "letting AI Agents autonomously dictate trading decisions."

Benson: I believe the biggest flaw with AI agents isn't model weakness, but what data you feed them. If you only provide candlestick charts and volume-price action accessible to everyone, even the most powerful models struggle to generate alpha out of thin air.

Benson: Raw facts may be cheap, but interpreting them is expensive. You either access unseen data, or everyone sees the exact same dataset but your analysis outperforms others.

Benson: Without unique data and insights, even the smartest AI agent is merely cooking with ordinary ingredients.

XV. Confirming The Main Surge Phase: ETF Inflows Surpassing 60k BTC Signal Real Breakout Potential

Mr. Z: Let's wrap up directly. Everyone says we're in the early bull phase, but when exactly does the real "main surge" begin?

Benson: I use a remarkably simple heuristic: monitor the trailing 30-day net inflows into BTC ETFs.

Benson: If cumulative net inflows over the past month exceed 60,000 BTC, I consider the market conditionally primed for a main surge. Similar dynamics preceded past clear breakout phases, and during truly extreme runs, 30-day inflows surged past 100,000 BTC.

Benson: The logic is straightforward. Given today's market cap for BTC, sustaining a 20-30% monthly rally without active participation from ETF-linked institutional capital is virtually impossible. Hence, 60,000 serves as a solid inflection threshold.

Benson: At the time of this interview, that figure sat only around 30,000 to 40,000, leading to my conclusion: the true main surge hasn't arrived yet.

Benson: I inversely flip this signal into an altcoin reduction gauge. Initially, altcoins comprised 25% of my portfolio. The first verified main surge would prompt me to halve that to 12.5%; upon repeated confirmation, I'd likely strip altcoin exposure entirely.

Benson: The most dangerous pitfall in bull markets is psychological inversion. Traders hesitate early on, committing only 10-20%. Once initial dip-buying successes build momentum, inertia takes over, culminating at the absolute top where leverage and position sizing max out.

Benson: When the music starts, have the courage to dance; when everyone is intoxicated, head to the bar for a glass of ice water to stay lucid.

Mr. Z: So this cycle demands preparation for a prolonged bull run alongside constant awareness of when to exit. Drink until satisfied, step away when drunk.

Benson: Precisely. The two concepts don't conflict at all. Exit gracefully on your own terms when appropriate, rather than waiting for security to carry you out at the end.

Mr. Z: Ultimately, this episode boils down to four straightforward takeaways: First, BTC is transitioning from a high-volatility tech stock beta toward Digital Gold; Second, this cycle may not be a fleeting months-long explosion, but a longer overarching period; Third, stop fantasizing about mining undiscovered alpha in altcoins—simply follow the themes already validated by price; Fourth, confirm the main surge via ETF flows, and identify true tops by tracking whether institutional liquidity keeps pace. Survival in bull markets isn't about predicting perfectly every time; it's about having the guts to commit early, sitting tight during the parabolic phase, and remembering to cash out when euphoria peaks. Thanks again to Benson for joining 168X!

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