Midterm election polls show a dead heat, with smart money predicting a Democratic sweep of both the Senate and the House.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on October 15, the Pew Research Center released a survey of 5,062 U.S. adults. The results show that 55% of respondents expect Democrats to win a House majority, while 40% expect Republicans to retain control of the House; the Senate is nearly tied—48% believe Republicans will hold their majority, and 46% believe Democrats will flip it.

On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Democrats sweeping both chambers in the midterm elections" is 63%.

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Currently, the probability of "Democrats take the House" is about 90%, and "Democrats take the Senate" is about 64%; Morning Consult's October midterm report said the president's approval rating has fallen to the worst level of his second term, and the decline comes from within Republican voters—sub-item ratings on issues such as healthcare, taxes, and energy have also hit new term lows.

A situation somewhat similar to the current political environment is the opposition wave when Republicans held the White House and Democrats were the opposition party: in 2006, Bush's approval rating fell to about 38%, and with disgust over the Iraq War and congressional scandals combined, Democrats netted about 30 House seats and 6 Senate seats, winning both chambers for the first time in 12 years; after election night, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld resigned.