Analyst: Bitcoin Exchange Outflows Point to Improving Supply Conditions, but Evidence Still Supports Neutral Stance

October 29 — CryptoQuant analyst CoinNiel posted that, as of October 27 (UTC), bitcoin exchange outflows indicate improving supply conditions, but the evidence still supports a neutral stance. Exchanges shifted from a net inflow of 7,278 BTC on October 26 to a net outflow of 12,702 BTC on October 27, with 7-day and 30-day net outflows of 4,633 BTC and 4,048 BTC respectively, although inflows were recorded on 4 of the past 7 days. The funding rate was +0.00762%, above its 7-day and 30-day averages, indicating a bullish tilt without overheating; open interest stood at $25.67 billion, up 0.56% over 7 days and 0.33% over 30 days. LTH-SOPR fell from 1.1657 to 1.0124, close to the break-even point, but this cannot confirm a decline in sell volume.

CoinNiel said he maintains a neutral view until BTC net outflows from exchanges form a sustained trend; if net outflows persist while the funding rate and OI remain stable, that would strengthen a bullish view, while renewed net inflows accompanied by a sharp rise in both would require reassessment. The recent net outflows were largely driven by a single day, the funding rate remains positive, and OI growth is modest.